Unveiling insights from online shopping carnivals: A pre-vs-post analysis

Online shopping carnivals (OSCs) like Double Eleven in China and Cyber Monday in North America have experienced remarkable sales growth. This study examines the benefits and challenges that online shopping carnivals bring to e-retailers as success metrics evolve. Based on the pre- and post-promotion dip theory, we investigate whether the surge in demand during online shopping carnivals is borrowed from preceding or subsequent periods. Our dataset contains information regarding consumer browsing and purchasing behaviors in an online B2C pharmaceutical retailer. Main findings from our analysis of China's Double Eleven, a super-sized online shopping carnival, confirm the existence of pre- and post-promotion dips conversion rates, while there are no significant cumulative adverse impacts on sales and orders before and after OSC. This outcome effectively alleviates concerns that OSCs could create operational challenges for retailers. We observe that the pre- and post-promotion dip effect manifests in changes in consumers' visiting behavior, including visit depth, visit length, and bounce rate. Exploratory analyses encompass the impact of online shopping carnivals on product returns, shifts in consumer groups, and the moderating influence of the shopping channel. We analyze the disparities in visit behavior between the PC and mobile channels and offer insights for channel-specific promotional strategies.