Trends in cohort fertility among Chinese women

BACKGROUND China’s continuous decline in births has attracted scholarly and policy attention. However, total fertility rates are affected by tempo effects and may not accurately reflect the underlying fertility level. OBJECTIVE We examine cohort trends in childlessness and the number of children ever born (CEB) among Chinese women, focusing on fertility postponement, recuperation, and the effects of structural changes. METHODS Using nationally representative data, we calculate age-specific childlessness proportions and the number of CEB by cohort. We analyze fertility postponement and recuperation, and employ decomposition techniques to assess how age-parity-specific progression ratios, urban–rural composition, and educational structure contribute to cohort fertility differences. RESULTS Childlessness has increased across cohorts, while CEB has declined. The rise in childlessness is stronger among urban and more educated women, whereas the decline in CEB is greatest among rural and less educated women. Fertility postponement has intensified, while recuperation has weakened. Decomposition shows that increased childlessness is primarily driven by reduced first-birth progression at younger reproductive ages, while the decline in CEB is largely attributed to shifts in women’s urban–rural and educational composition. CONCLUSIONS Childlessness has risen and fertility levels have declined, with differences across urban–rural and educational groups. These patterns highlight the need to consider social and structural factors in policies aimed at supporting fertility. CONTRIBUTION This study provides a systematic cohort-based analysis of childlessness and fertility trends in China, providing valuable empirical evidence on cohort fertility.