Time to Leave: Emigration Tendencies in Hong Kong After the 1997 Handover and the 2019 Social Movement

This article aims to expand the scope of migration research by examining politically driven migration. Drawing from the immigration literature, we distinguish between two forms of politically driven migration, which can be a risk-averse response to an unknown political future or an expression of dissatisfaction with governments or policies. We substantiate our arguments with evidence from the emigration tendencies of Hong Kong residents after the 1997 handover and the 2019 social movement. We argue that the intention to emigrate after 1997 was driven by a desire to reduce the perceived risks associated with the unknown political future brought about by the transfer of sovereignty. The intention to emigrate after 2019 reflects residents' dissatisfaction with the current political and social arrangements in Hong Kong, particularly as individuals have paid a price to voice for change during the social movement, only to see limited success and a shrinking space for expressing dissenting opinions.