Time-dependent reliability analysis of harmonic drive based on transient FEA and accelerated life test

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the time-dependent reliability of harmonic drive. Design/methodology/approach: The transient finite element analysis (FEA) of harmonic drive is established to calculate the stress under different loads. Combined with the residual strength model and random variables, the time-dependent reliability model of harmonic drive is deduced by the stochastic perturbation method and Edgeworth series. Based on accelerated life tests, the degradation parameters are estimated by maximizing likelihood function. Under variable load, the key stress from transient FEA is transformed into probability density function by kernel density estimation, and the residual strength model is modified by adding adjustment factors to deal with strength degradation under different loads. Findings: The critical position of stress concentration from transient FEA is consistent with the fatigue fracture position at the accelerated life test sample. Compared with the time-dependent reliability method with equivalent circular-shell static stress or empirical degradation parameters, the proposed method has the smallest prediction error of failure life. Under variable load, the state function should be expanded to second-order series for avoiding error items relevant to variance. The failure life expectation under random variable load is smaller than that under constant load. Originality/value: The time-dependent reliability method of harmonic drive is firstly proposed under constant and variable load. The transient FEA of harmonic drive is established to calculate the stress for strength analysis. The accelerated life test of harmonic drive is conducted for degradation parameters estimation. The adjustment factor is added to the residual strength model for strength degradation under different loads.