THOR: a TMB heterogeneity-adaptive optimization model predicts immunotherapy response using clonal genomic features in group-structured data

With the increasing number of indications for immune checkpoint inhibitors in early and advanced cancers, the prospect of a tumor-agnostic biomarker to prioritize patients is compelling. Tumor mutation burden (TMB) is a widely endorsed biomarker that quantifies nonsynonymous mutations within tumor DNA, essential for neoantigen production, which, in turn, correlates with the immune response and guides decision-making. However, the general clinical application of TMB—relying on simple mutational counts targeted at a single endpoint—does not adequately capture the complex clonal structure of tumors nor the multifaceted nature of prognostic indicators. This recognition has spurred the exploration of sophisticated high-dimensional regression techniques. Unfortunately, the limited cohort sizes in immunotherapy trials have hindered the full potential of these advanced methods. Our approach considers patient subgroups as related yet distinct entities, enabling precise tailoring and refinement to address subgroup-specific dynamics. Given the deficiencies and the constraints, we introduce a TMB heterogeneity-optimized regression (THOR). This innovative model enhances the predictive capabilities of TMB by integrating tumor clonality and a diverse spectrum of clinical endpoints, further augmented by fusion techniques across subgroups to facilitate robust data sharing and interpretation. Our simulations validate THOR’s superiority in parameter estimation for statistical inference. Clinically, we assess the utility of THOR in a structured cohort of 238 cancer patients undergoing immunotherapy, supplemented by 2212 patients across 19 subgroups from public datasets. The forecast of the responses and comparison of survival hazards demonstrate that THOR significantly enhances patient stratification and prognostic predictions by incorporating complex immunogenetic biology and subgroup-specific dynamics.