The clinical predictive value of geriatric nutritional risk index in elderly rectal cancer patients received surgical treatment after neoadjuvant therapy

Objective: The assessment of nutritional status has been recognized as crucial in the treatment of geriatric cancer patients. The objective of this study is to determine the clinical predictive value of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in predicting the short-term and long-term prognosis of elderly rectal cancer (RC) patients who undergo surgical treatment after neoadjuvant therapy. Methods: Between January 2014 and December 2020, the clinical materials of 639 RC patients aged ≥70 years who underwent surgical treatment after neoadjuvant therapy were retrospectively analysed. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for baseline potential confounders. Logistic regression analysis and competing risk analysis were conducted to evaluate the correlation between the GNRI and the risk of postoperative major complications and cumulative incidence of cancer-specific survival (CSS). Nomograms were then constructed for postoperative major complications and CSS. Additionally, 203 elderly RC patients were enrolled between January 2021 and December 2022 as an external validation cohort. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GNRI [odds ratio = 1.903, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.120–3.233, p = 0.017] was an independent risk factor for postoperative major complications. In competing risk analysis, the GNRI was also identified as an independent prognostic factor for CSS (subdistribution hazard ratio = 3.90, 95% CI: 2.46–6.19, p < 0.001). The postoperative major complication nomogram showed excellent performance internally and externally in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). When compared with other models, the competing risk prognosis nomogram incorporating the GNRI achieved the highest outcomes in terms of the C-index, AUC, calibration plots, and DCA. Conclusion: The GNRI is a simple and effective tool for predicting the risk of postoperative major complications and the long-term prognosis of elderly RC patients who undergo surgical treatment after neoadjuvant therapy.