The burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to metabolic risk factors and its change from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis and prediction

Background: Metabolic disorders are the most important risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The purpose of this study was to systematically analyze and summarize the most recent data by age, sex, region, and time, and to forecast the future burden of diseases. Methods: Data on the burden of CVDs associated with metabolic risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019; and then the burden of disease was assessed using the numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and analyzed for temporal changes, differences in age, region, sex, and socioeconomic aspects; finally, the burden of disease was predicted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs attributed to metabolic risk factors increased by 59.3%, 51.0%, 104.6%, and 47.8%, respectively. The ASR decreased significantly. The burden of metabolic risk factor-associated CVDs was closely related to socioeconomic position and there were major geographical variations; additionally, men had a significantly greater disease burden than women, and the peak shifted later based on the age group. We predicted that the numbers of deaths and DALYs would reach 16.5 million and 324.8 million, respectively, by 2029. Conclusions: The global burden of CVDs associated with metabolic risk factors is considerable and still rising, and more effort is needed to intervene in metabolic disorders.