Study on probabilistic models and algorithms of available transfer capability

Based on a probabilistic model, a method to calculate the available transfer capability (ATC) is proposed. The method combines Monte Carlo Simulation with a sensitivity analysis. The uncertainties in power system are considered using Monte Carlo Simulation and the ATC is calculated quickly via a sensitivity analysis. Besides the expected value and the probabilistic distribution of ATC, the bottleneck information is also obtained to indicate the system weakness. The results of the test system show that the proposed method is efficient in the ATC calculation.