Risk-Informed Vulnerability Identification for Transmission Systems under High Uncertainty

The high uncertainty arising from the volatility of renewable energy sources and the stochastic occurrences of component failures poses significant challenges to transmission systems. This paper explores a novel approach to quantitatively characterize the vulnerability of transmission systems under uncertainty by evaluating the associated risk and identifying the vulnerable link within the system. A vulnerability analysis framework is firstly proposed. The uncertainty in terms of RES output and random component failure is modeled, based on which a risk evaluation method for transmission systems is proposed. Then, a risk-informed vulnerability identification method is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested in the IEEE 39-bus system, and the result shows that the research contributes to the resilience enhancement of transmission systems under high uncertainty.