Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System Based on Time-Varying Failure Rate Model and Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process

In the traditional reliability evaluation of distribution systems, it is generally considered that the failure rate of components is a constant value. As the operating conditions of the distribution system become more and more complex, the change in failure rate caused by component aging cannot be ignored. A time-varying failure rate model considering component aging is proposed. Based on the time-varying failure rate model and the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, a new reliability evaluation method is proposed in this paper. The IEEE RBTS-BUS2 distribution system is used to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation method. Through the analysis of the practical examples, it can be found that the customer reliability index shows a consistent change trend after considering the component failure rate change with time. The comprehensive analysis of the customer and system reliability index shows that the change in failure rate caused by component aging is not negligible.