Provincial allocation of carbon emission quotas for China’s 2030 carbon peak target

Developing a fair and effective carbon emissions quotas (CEQ) allocation plan is crucial for China. This study uses the constructed threshold-STIRPAT extended model to predict the carbon peak in China’s 30 provinces. Secondly, the entropy-TOPSIS method is used to calculate the initial allocation of CEQ based on the principle of fairness and is assessed through the carbon Gini coefficient. Thirdly, the optimal allocation of CEQ is calculated based on efficiency principle using the ZSG-DEA model. Finally, based on the carbon peak and CEQ, identify the emission reduction pressures faced by provinces. The results indicate that, under the energy-saving development scenario, China carbon emissions (CE) are expected to peak at 11,813.44 Mt by 2030. which can serve as China’s overall CEQ; From the perspective of initial allocation of CEQ under the principle of fairness, the initial CEQ in the eastern and central regions are generally higher than those in the western and northeastern regions; From the perspective of optimizing CEQ allocation under the principle of efficiency, the optimized CEQ in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong are significantly higher than the initial CEQ, while the optimized CEQ in Guangxi and Gansu are significantly lower than the initial CEQ; High-High are mainly concentrated in the northern regions, High-Low are mainly distributed in the central and eastern coastal regions, and Low-Low are mainly distributed in the western and northeastern regions. This study provides a new research approach for developing fair and effective CEQ allocation schemes.