Probabilistic production simulation of a combined heat and power system

The probabilistic production simulation (PPS) is an important tool for the prediction of power prices and management of generation plan in the electricity market. However, the conventional method of PPS is not suited to the combined heat and power (CHP) units. This paper generalizes the traditional PPS algorithm of power system to include the CHP units and describes the models of units and the equivalent load probability density function (ELPDF). The formulas of the units' operational parameters and the system reliability indices are given and the management of minimum unit technique output as well as the method for determining the loading merit order are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility of the algorithm proposed.