Preoperative and postoperative MRI-based models versus clinical staging systems for predicting early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: To predict the early recurrence of HCC patients who received radical resection using preoperative variables based on Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI, followed by the comparison with the postoperative model and clinical staging systems. Methods: One hundred and twenty-nine HCC patients who received radical resection were categorized into the early recurrence group (n = 48) and the early recurrence-free group (n = 81). Through COX regression analysis, statistically significant variables of laboratory, pathologic, and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI results were identified. The preoperative and postoperative models were established to predict early recurrence, and the prognostic performances and differences were compared between the two models and clinical staging systems. Results: Six variables were incorporated into the preoperative model, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI), rim arterial phase hyperenhancement (rim APHE), peritumoral hypointensity on hepatobiliary phase (HBP), CER_HBP (tumor-to-liver SI ratio on hepatobiliary phase imaging), and ADC value. Moreover, the postoperative model was developed by adding microvascular invasion (MVI) and histological grade. The C-index of the preoperative model and postoperative model were 0.889 and 0.901 (p = 0.211) respectively. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA), it was determined that the innovative models we developed had superior predictive capabilities for early recurrence in comparison to current clinical staging systems. HCC patients who received radical resection were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups on the basis of the preoperative and postoperative models. Conclusion: The preoperative and postoperative MRI-based models built in this study were more competent compared with clinical staging systems to predict the early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma.