Multi-Uncertainty Capacity Planning of Integrated Energy System Considering Low-Carbon and Flexible Transformation of Coal-Fired Power Plants

Driven by the growing utilization of renewable energies and the pursuit of carbon neutrality goals, traditional coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) require greater flexibility in energy output dispatch and a reduction in carbon emissions. Meanwhile, in the long-term capacity planning of integrated energy systems (IESs) incorporating CFPPs, uncertainties at both the investment and operation stages cannot be ignored. Therefore, a novel low-carbon and flexible transformation structure for CFPPs is proposed in this paper, with its operation characteristics being modelled and thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, to address multiple uncertainties, a capacity planning model for IESs based on conditional value at risk and information gap decision theory (CVaR-IGDT) is developed. The proposed model can be converted to a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem to facilitate the computation. Numerical case analyses validate the effectiveness of the proposed low-carbon and flexible transformation structure for CFPPs, as well as the overall economy and reliability of the capacity planning scheme with multiple uncertainties.