Maintenance reserve capacity evaluation considering uncertainty of maintenance demands for power system

Since the power system planning needs urgently the maintenance reserve capacity evaluation but the uncertainty of unit maintenance demands influences greatly the evaluation, a method of maintenance reserve capacity evaluation is proposed, which builds a model of maintenance reserve capacity evaluation considering the uncertainty of maintenance demands and adopts the minimum accumulated load principle to determine the maintenance period for solving the model. Two maintenance reserve capacity adequacy indices based on Monte Carlo simulation method are proposed for determining the system maintenance reserve capacity and further the system capacity requirement. They are the loss of maintenance reserve capacity probability and the expected maintenance reserve capacity not supplied. A case study based on the actual unit maintenance data of a power system verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.