Impacts of wind speed simulation methods on adequacy evaluation of power systems in the partitioned multi-objective risk analysis framework

The impacts of wind speed simulation methods on reliability assessment were discussed to provide useful reference for selection of those methods. First, the seasonal and diurnal characteristics, autocorrelation were investigated based on the observed wind speed data. The advantages and dis-advantages of the observed wind method, the mean observed wind speed method, the probability sampling method, the multi-state equivalent method and the time series modelling method were analyzed. Second, aiming at the disadvantages of the unconditional expected values of the reliability indices, the conditional reliability indices for adequacy evaluation were proposed, and the reliability assessment process of power systems based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method (PMRM) was discussed. Finally, the modified IEEE-RTS including wind generation was evaluated based on the PMRM. Numerical results show that there is little difference in the unconditional and conditional reliability indices between time series methods and the observed wind speed method; the conditional reliability indices of system states using the probability sampling method have the characteristic of high frequency and short duration; the conditional probability of the healthy state using the mean observed wind speed method is larger whereas the conditional probabilities of the marginal and at-risk states are smaller compared with using the observed wind speed method, and the healthy state presents the pro-perties of low frequency and long duration.