Identification of a Five-Gene Signature for Predicting Survival in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Patients

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), predominantly caused by asbestos exposure, is a highly aggressive cancer with poor prognosis. The staging systems currently used in clinics is inadequate in evaluating the prognosis of MPM. In this study, a five-gene signature was developed and enrolled into a prognostic risk score model by LASSO Cox regression analysis based on two expression profiling datasets (GSE2549 and GSE51024) from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). The five-gene signature was further validated using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) MPM dataset. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses proved that the five-gene signature was an independent prognostic factor for MPM. The signature remained statistically significant upon stratification by Brigham stage, AJCC stage, gender, tumor size, and lymph node status. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicated good performance of our model in predicting 1- and 2-years overall survival in MPM patients. The C-index was 0.784 for GSE2549 and 0.753 for the TCGA dataset showing moderate predictive accuracy of our model. Furthermore, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis suggested that the five-gene signature was related to pathways resulting in MPM tumor progression. Together, we have established a five-gene signature significantly associated with prognosis in MPM patients. Hence, the five-genes signature may serve as a potentially useful prognostic tool for MPM patients.