Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

Qing Zhu; Yujing Guo; Genfu Feng

doi:10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

Qing Zhu
, Yujing Guo
, Genfu Feng

经济与金融学院

Shaanxi Normal University
Xi'an Jiaotong University

科研成果: 书/报告/会议事项章节 › 会议稿件 › 同行评审

14 引用（Scopus）

摘要

In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

源语言	英语
主期刊名	Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
页	654-659
页数	6
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150
出版状态	已出版 - 2012
活动	2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 - Harbin, Heilongjiang, 中国期限: 23 6月 2012 → 26 6月 2012

丛书

姓名	Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012

会议

会议	2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012
国家/地区	中国
市	Harbin, Heilongjiang
时期	23/06/12 → 26/06/12

联合国可持续发展目标

此成果有助于实现下列可持续发展目标：

可持续发展目标 7 经济适用的清洁能源

访问文件

10.1109/CSO.2012.150

其它文件与链接

链接到 Scopus 的出版物

引用此

Zhu, Q., Guo, Y., & Feng, G. (2012). Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. 在 Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 (页码 654-659). 期刊论文 6274811 (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012). https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Zhu, Qing ; Guo, Yujing ; Feng, Genfu. / Household energy consumption in China : Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012. 2012. 页码 654-659 (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012).

@inproceedings{ac2dda0bd02b437ca14bb529c3649efd,

title = "Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015",

abstract = "In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of {"}the 12th five year plan{"} are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.",

keywords = "ARIMA, BVAR, Household energy consumption (HEC)",

author = "Qing Zhu and Yujing Guo and Genfu Feng",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1109/CSO.2012.150",

language = "英语",

isbn = "9780769546902",

series = "Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012",

pages = "654--659",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012",

note = "2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012 ; Conference date: 23-06-2012 Through 26-06-2012",

}

Zhu, Q, Guo, Y & Feng, G 2012, Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. 在 Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012., 6274811, Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012, 页码 654-659, 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 中国, 23/06/12. https://doi.org/10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. / Zhu, Qing; Guo, Yujing; Feng, Genfu.
Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012. 2012. 页码 654-659 6274811 (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012).

科研成果: 书/报告/会议事项章节 › 会议稿件 › 同行评审

TY - GEN

T1 - Household energy consumption in China

T2 - 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012

AU - Zhu, Qing

AU - Guo, Yujing

AU - Feng, Genfu

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

AB - In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from 1980 to 2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What's more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the 12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.

KW - ARIMA

KW - BVAR

KW - Household energy consumption (HEC)

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84867903930

U2 - 10.1109/CSO.2012.150

DO - 10.1109/CSO.2012.150

M3 - 会议稿件

AN - SCOPUS:84867903930

SN - 9780769546902

T3 - Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012

SP - 654

EP - 659

BT - Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012

Y2 - 23 June 2012 through 26 June 2012

ER -

Zhu Q, Guo Y, Feng G. Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015. 在 Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012. 2012. 页码 654-659. 6274811. (Proceedings of the 2012 5th International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2012). doi: 10.1109/CSO.2012.150

Household energy consumption in China: Forecasting with BVAR model up to 2015

摘要

丛书

会议

联合国可持续发展目标

访问文件

其它文件与链接

学术指纹

引用此