Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change

Siyi Sun; M. Francesca Cotrufo; R. A. Viscarra Rossel; Carsten W. Mueller; Morimaru Kida; Ailsa G. Hardie; Alec Mackay; Alexander H. Krichels; Wulf Amelung; Amit Kumar; Azamat Suleymanov; Baoku Shi; Bernard Jackson Cosby; César Plaza; César Terrer; Chang Liang; Chang Liao; Christopher Just; Ding Guo; Emanuele Lugato; Enqing Hou; Fan Ding; Fazhu Zhao; Feng Tao; Fernando T. Maestre; Franco Bilotto; Fuzhong Wu; Gisela V. García; Gongwen Luo; Guangxuan Han; Guillermo A. Studdert; Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez; Guoxiang Niu; Gervasio Piñeiro; Gustavo Saiz; Haikuo Zhang; Hamada Abdelrahman; Haodi Xu; Inma Lebron; Irina Kurganova; Jennifer Blesh; Jeppe Kristensen; Ji Liu; Jiacong Zhou; Jianping Wu; Jitendra Ahirwal; Junji Cao; Jørgen E. Olesen; Karin Kauer; Katerina Georgiou; Kees Jan van Groenigen; Kristof Van Oost; Kwame Agyei Frimpong; Lei Deng; Liane G. Benning; Liang Guo; Lizzie Mujuru; Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo; Maoz Dor; Mehdi Rahmati; Min Luo; Olga Kalinina; Olli Hyvärinen; Pablo García-Palacios; Paige Hansen; Patra Rounak; Pengpeng Duan; Pengzhi Zhao; Peter M. Homyak; Rajan Ghimire; Renaldas Žydelis; Roland Bol; Ronaldo Vibart; Ruiying Chang; Ruyi Luo; Sebastián Villarino; Shuai Xue; Shuli Niu; Shuotong Chen; Tengfei Yu; Steven J. Hall; Thomas Kätterer; Tida Ge; Vusumuzi Erick Mbanjwa; Vyacheslav M. Semenov; Weixing Liu; Weiyu Shi; Wei Zhang; Wolfgang Wanek; Wolfram Buss; Xiangrong Cheng; Xiankai Lu; Xiaojun Shi; Xiaoli Cheng; Xiaorong Wei; Xiaotong Liu; Xuhui Zhou; Yahya Kooch; Yangquanwei Zhong; Yanjiang Cai; Yan Yang; Yiqi Luo; Yixuan Zhang; Yunbin Qin; Yunting Fang; Yuting Liang; Yuyi Li; Zengming Chen; Zhanfeng Liu; Zhaoliang Song; Zhongkui Luo; Zhisheng An; Ji Chen

doi:10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change

Siyi Sun
, M. Francesca Cotrufo
, R. A. Viscarra Rossel
, Carsten W. Mueller
, Morimaru Kida
, Ailsa G. Hardie
, Alec Mackay
, Alexander H. Krichels
, Wulf Amelung
, Amit Kumar
, Azamat Suleymanov
, Baoku Shi
, Bernard Jackson Cosby
, César Plaza
, César Terrer
, Chang Liang
, Chang Liao
, Christopher Just
, Ding Guo
, Emanuele Lugato

Enqing Hou, Fan Ding, Fazhu Zhao, Feng Tao, Fernando T. Maestre, Franco Bilotto, Fuzhong Wu, Gisela V. García, Gongwen Luo, Guangxuan Han, Guillermo A. Studdert, Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez, Guoxiang Niu, Gervasio Piñeiro, Gustavo Saiz, Haikuo Zhang, Hamada Abdelrahman, Haodi Xu, Inma Lebron, Irina Kurganova, Jennifer Blesh, Jeppe Kristensen, Ji Liu, Jiacong Zhou, Jianping Wu, Jitendra Ahirwal, Junji Cao, Jørgen E. Olesen, Karin Kauer, Katerina Georgiou, Kees Jan van Groenigen, Kristof Van Oost, Kwame Agyei Frimpong, Lei Deng, Liane G. Benning, Liang Guo, Lizzie Mujuru, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Maoz Dor, Mehdi Rahmati, Min Luo, Olga Kalinina, Olli Hyvärinen, Pablo García-Palacios, Paige Hansen, Patra Rounak, Pengpeng Duan, Pengzhi Zhao, Peter M. Homyak, Rajan Ghimire, Renaldas Žydelis, Roland Bol, Ronaldo Vibart, Ruiying Chang, Ruyi Luo, Sebastián Villarino, Shuai Xue, Shuli Niu, Shuotong Chen, Tengfei Yu, Steven J. Hall, Thomas Kätterer, Tida Ge, Vusumuzi Erick Mbanjwa, Vyacheslav M. Semenov, Weixing Liu, Weiyu Shi, Wei Zhang, Wolfgang Wanek, Wolfram Buss, Xiangrong Cheng, Xiankai Lu, Xiaojun Shi, Xiaoli Cheng, Xiaorong Wei, Xiaotong Liu, Xuhui Zhou, Yahya Kooch, Yangquanwei Zhong, Yanjiang Cai, Yan Yang, Yiqi Luo, Yixuan Zhang, Yunbin Qin, Yunting Fang, Yuting Liang, Yuyi Li, Zengming Chen, Zhanfeng Liu, Zhaoliang Song, Zhongkui Luo, Zhisheng An, Ji Chen

CAS - Institute of Earth Environment
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Colorado State University
Curtin University
Technical University of Berlin
University of Copenhagen
Kobe University
Stellenbosch University
AgResearch
United States Department of Agriculture
University of California at Riverside
University of Bonn
United Arab Emirates University
Russian Academy of Sciences
Ufa University of Science and Technology
Northeast Normal University
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Yunnan University
Technical University of Munich
Lanzhou University
the European Commission
CAS - South China Institute of Botany
Shenyang Agricultural University
Northwest University China
Cornell University
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Fujian Normal University
Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata
Hunan Agricultural University
CAS - Yantai Institute of Coastal Research for Sustainable Development
University of Alberta
Universidad de Buenos Aires
Universidad de la República
Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción
Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University
Cairo University
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
University of Oxford
Aarhus University
University of Allahabad
CAS - Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Czech Academy of Sciences
Estonian University of Life Sciences
Chem./Materials Science Directorate
University of Exeter
Université catholique de Louvain
University of Cape Coast Ghana
Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences
Bindura University of Science Education
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Michigan State University
University of Maragheh
Jülich Research Centre
Fuzhou University
University of Oldenburg
University of Oslo
University of Zurich
University of Tennessee
CAS - Institute of Subtropical Agriculture
Lancaster University
New Mexico State University
Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry
CAS - Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment
CAS - Chengdu Institute of Biology
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
CAS - Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research
Yangzhou University
CAS - Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources
Iowa State University
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Ningbo University
University of KwaZulu-Natal
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Southwest University
University of Vienna
Australian National University
Chinese Academy of Forestry
International Center for Bamboo and Rattan
Northeast Forestry University
Tarbiat Modarres University
Northwestern Polytechnical University Xian
Guangxi Normal University
CAS - Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tianjin University
Zhejiang University
Guanzhong Plain Ecological Environment Change and Comprehensive Treatment National Observation and Research Station
School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering

科研成果: 期刊稿件 › 文章 › 同行评审

5 引用（Scopus）

摘要

Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (f_POC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that f_POC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) release of 81.34 Pg CO₂-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.

源语言	英语
期刊论文编号	4695
期刊	Nature Communications
卷	17
期	1
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2
出版状态	已出版 - 12月 2026
已对外发布	是

联合国可持续发展目标

此成果有助于实现下列可持续发展目标：

可持续发展目标 13 气候行动

访问文件

10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

其它文件与链接

链接到 Scopus 的出版物

引用此

Sun, S., Cotrufo, M. F., Viscarra Rossel, R. A., Mueller, C. W., Kida, M., Hardie, A. G., Mackay, A., Krichels, A. H., Amelung, W., Kumar, A., Suleymanov, A., Shi, B., Cosby, B. J., Plaza, C., Terrer, C., Liang, C., Liao, C., Just, C., Guo, D., ... Chen, J. (2026). Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change. Nature Communications, 17(1), 期刊论文 4695. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

@article{f654d75b1d2a45c4ba39a636f5ba3188,

title = "Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change",

abstract = "Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10\% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.",

author = "Siyi Sun and Cotrufo, \{M. Francesca\} and \{Viscarra Rossel\}, \{R. A.\} and Mueller, \{Carsten W.\} and Morimaru Kida and Hardie, \{Ailsa G.\} and Alec Mackay and Krichels, \{Alexander H.\} and Wulf Amelung and Amit Kumar and Azamat Suleymanov and Baoku Shi and Cosby, \{Bernard Jackson\} and C{\'e}sar Plaza and C{\'e}sar Terrer and Chang Liang and Chang Liao and Christopher Just and Ding Guo and Emanuele Lugato and Enqing Hou and Fan Ding and Fazhu Zhao and Feng Tao and Maestre, \{Fernando T.\} and Franco Bilotto and Fuzhong Wu and Garc{\'i}a, \{Gisela V.\} and Gongwen Luo and Guangxuan Han and Studdert, \{Guillermo A.\} and Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez and Guoxiang Niu and Gervasio Pi{\~n}eiro and Gustavo Saiz and Haikuo Zhang and Hamada Abdelrahman and Haodi Xu and Inma Lebron and Irina Kurganova and Jennifer Blesh and Jeppe Kristensen and Ji Liu and Jiacong Zhou and Jianping Wu and Jitendra Ahirwal and Junji Cao and Olesen, \{J{\o}rgen E.\} and Karin Kauer and Katerina Georgiou and \{van Groenigen\}, \{Kees Jan\} and \{Van Oost\}, Kristof and Frimpong, \{Kwame Agyei\} and Lei Deng and Benning, \{Liane G.\} and Liang Guo and Lizzie Mujuru and Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo and Maoz Dor and Mehdi Rahmati and Min Luo and Olga Kalinina and Olli Hyv{\"a}rinen and Pablo Garc{\'i}a-Palacios and Paige Hansen and Patra Rounak and Pengpeng Duan and Pengzhi Zhao and Homyak, \{Peter M.\} and Rajan Ghimire and Renaldas {\v Z}ydelis and Roland Bol and Ronaldo Vibart and Ruiying Chang and Ruyi Luo and Sebasti{\'a}n Villarino and Shuai Xue and Shuli Niu and Shuotong Chen and Tengfei Yu and Hall, \{Steven J.\} and Thomas K{\"a}tterer and Tida Ge and Mbanjwa, \{Vusumuzi Erick\} and Semenov, \{Vyacheslav M.\} and Weixing Liu and Weiyu Shi and Wei Zhang and Wolfgang Wanek and Wolfram Buss and Xiangrong Cheng and Xiankai Lu and Xiaojun Shi and Xiaoli Cheng and Xiaorong Wei and Xiaotong Liu and Xuhui Zhou and Yahya Kooch and Yangquanwei Zhong and Yanjiang Cai and Yan Yang and Yiqi Luo and Yixuan Zhang and Yunbin Qin and Yunting Fang and Yuting Liang and Yuyi Li and Zengming Chen and Zhanfeng Liu and Zhaoliang Song and Zhongkui Luo and Zhisheng An and Ji Chen",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2026.",

year = "2026",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2",

language = "英语",

volume = "17",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "1",

}

Sun, S, Cotrufo, MF, Viscarra Rossel, RA, Mueller, CW, Kida, M, Hardie, AG, Mackay, A, Krichels, AH, Amelung, W, Kumar, A, Suleymanov, A, Shi, B, Cosby, BJ, Plaza, C, Terrer, C, Liang, C, Liao, C, Just, C, Guo, D, Lugato, E, Hou, E, Ding, F, Zhao, F, Tao, F, Maestre, FT, Bilotto, F, Wu, F, García, GV, Luo, G, Han, G, Studdert, GA, Hernandez-Ramirez, G, Niu, G, Piñeiro, G, Saiz, G, Zhang, H, Abdelrahman, H, Xu, H, Lebron, I, Kurganova, I, Blesh, J, Kristensen, J, Liu, J, Zhou, J, Wu, J, Ahirwal, J, Cao, J, Olesen, JE, Kauer, K, Georgiou, K, van Groenigen, KJ, Van Oost, K, Frimpong, KA, Deng, L, Benning, LG, Guo, L, Mujuru, L, Delgado-Baquerizo, M, Dor, M, Rahmati, M, Luo, M, Kalinina, O, Hyvärinen, O, García-Palacios, P, Hansen, P, Rounak, P, Duan, P, Zhao, P, Homyak, PM, Ghimire, R, Žydelis, R, Bol, R, Vibart, R, Chang, R, Luo, R, Villarino, S, Xue, S, Niu, S, Chen, S, Yu, T, Hall, SJ, Kätterer, T, Ge, T, Mbanjwa, VE, Semenov, VM, Liu, W, Shi, W, Zhang, W, Wanek, W, Buss, W, Cheng, X, Lu, X, Shi, X, Cheng, X, Wei, X, Liu, X, Zhou, X, Kooch, Y, Zhong, Y, Cai, Y, Yang, Y, Luo, Y, Zhang, Y, Qin, Y, Fang, Y, Liang, Y, Li, Y, Chen, Z, Liu, Z, Song, Z, Luo, Z, An, Z & Chen, J 2026, 'Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change', Nature Communications, 卷 17, 号码 1, 4695. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change

AU - Sun, Siyi

AU - Cotrufo, M. Francesca

AU - Viscarra Rossel, R. A.

AU - Mueller, Carsten W.

AU - Kida, Morimaru

AU - Hardie, Ailsa G.

AU - Mackay, Alec

AU - Krichels, Alexander H.

AU - Amelung, Wulf

AU - Kumar, Amit

AU - Suleymanov, Azamat

AU - Shi, Baoku

AU - Cosby, Bernard Jackson

AU - Plaza, César

AU - Terrer, César

AU - Liang, Chang

AU - Liao, Chang

AU - Just, Christopher

AU - Guo, Ding

AU - Lugato, Emanuele

AU - Hou, Enqing

AU - Ding, Fan

AU - Zhao, Fazhu

AU - Tao, Feng

AU - Maestre, Fernando T.

AU - Bilotto, Franco

AU - Wu, Fuzhong

AU - García, Gisela V.

AU - Luo, Gongwen

AU - Han, Guangxuan

AU - Studdert, Guillermo A.

AU - Hernandez-Ramirez, Guillermo

AU - Niu, Guoxiang

AU - Piñeiro, Gervasio

AU - Saiz, Gustavo

AU - Zhang, Haikuo

AU - Abdelrahman, Hamada

AU - Xu, Haodi

AU - Lebron, Inma

AU - Kurganova, Irina

AU - Blesh, Jennifer

AU - Kristensen, Jeppe

AU - Liu, Ji

AU - Zhou, Jiacong

AU - Wu, Jianping

AU - Ahirwal, Jitendra

AU - Cao, Junji

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E.

AU - Kauer, Karin

AU - Georgiou, Katerina

AU - van Groenigen, Kees Jan

AU - Van Oost, Kristof

AU - Frimpong, Kwame Agyei

AU - Deng, Lei

AU - Benning, Liane G.

AU - Guo, Liang

AU - Mujuru, Lizzie

AU - Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel

AU - Dor, Maoz

AU - Rahmati, Mehdi

AU - Luo, Min

AU - Kalinina, Olga

AU - Hyvärinen, Olli

AU - García-Palacios, Pablo

AU - Hansen, Paige

AU - Rounak, Patra

AU - Duan, Pengpeng

AU - Zhao, Pengzhi

AU - Homyak, Peter M.

AU - Ghimire, Rajan

AU - Žydelis, Renaldas

AU - Bol, Roland

AU - Vibart, Ronaldo

AU - Chang, Ruiying

AU - Luo, Ruyi

AU - Villarino, Sebastián

AU - Xue, Shuai

AU - Niu, Shuli

AU - Chen, Shuotong

AU - Yu, Tengfei

AU - Hall, Steven J.

AU - Kätterer, Thomas

AU - Ge, Tida

AU - Mbanjwa, Vusumuzi Erick

AU - Semenov, Vyacheslav M.

AU - Liu, Weixing

AU - Shi, Weiyu

AU - Zhang, Wei

AU - Wanek, Wolfgang

AU - Buss, Wolfram

AU - Cheng, Xiangrong

AU - Lu, Xiankai

AU - Shi, Xiaojun

AU - Cheng, Xiaoli

AU - Wei, Xiaorong

AU - Liu, Xiaotong

AU - Zhou, Xuhui

AU - Kooch, Yahya

AU - Zhong, Yangquanwei

AU - Cai, Yanjiang

AU - Yang, Yan

AU - Luo, Yiqi

AU - Zhang, Yixuan

AU - Qin, Yunbin

AU - Fang, Yunting

AU - Liang, Yuting

AU - Li, Yuyi

AU - Chen, Zengming

AU - Liu, Zhanfeng

AU - Song, Zhaoliang

AU - Luo, Zhongkui

AU - An, Zhisheng

AU - Chen, Ji

PY - 2026/12

Y1 - 2026/12

N2 - Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.

AB - Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105040332956

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2

M3 - 文章

C2 - 41922363

AN - SCOPUS:105040332956

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 17

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 4695

ER -

Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change

摘要

联合国可持续发展目标

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学术指纹

引用此