TY - JOUR
T1 - Global Burden of Chronic Liver Disease and Temporal Trends
T2 - A Population-Based Analysis From 1990 to 2021 With Projections to 2050
AU - Zhao, Yunyu
AU - Bo, Yajing
AU - Zu, Jian
AU - Xing, Zixuan
AU - Yang, Zhanpeng
AU - Zhang, Yue
AU - Deng, Yujiao
AU - Liu, Yi
AU - Zhang, Lanting
AU - Yuan, Xiao
AU - Wang, Yuan
AU - Henry, Linda
AU - Ji, Fanpu
AU - Nguyen, Mindie H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2025/6
Y1 - 2025/6
N2 - Background and Aims: Globally, the aetiology and epidemiology of chronic liver disease (CLD) are undergoing significant changes. We aimed to investigate the updated global burden of CLD, evaluate the cross-country inequalities, and provide 2050 predictions. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data resources, we analysed and forecasted CLD prevalence, incidence, and related death from 1990–2021 to 2050, respectively. We calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) by joinpoint regression model and quantified inequalities according to World Health Organisation-recommended health equity standards. Results: In 2021, the number of prevalent, incident CLD and related deaths globally were 1.7 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.6–1.8), 58.4 million (95% UI: 54.2–62.8) and 1.4 million (95% UI: 1.3–1.5), respectively. During 1990–2021, the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) increased, especially in those aged 15–49 (AAPC: 0.49%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45%–0.53%), in Europe (AAPC: 0.41%; 95% CI: 0.41%–0.42%) and the Americas (AAPC: 0.41%; 95% CI: 0.39%–0.42%), whereas the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) decreased globally (AAPC: −1.26%; 95% CI: −1.35% [−1.17%]) and across subgroups. During 1990–2021, the ASIR of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) increased the most in those aged 15–49 (AAPC: 0.72%; 95% CI: 0.67%–0.77%) and in the Western Pacific region (AAPC: 0.73%; 95% CI: 0.59%–0.86%). Socio-demographic index (SDI)-related inequalities decreased for the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) and ASIR of CLD but increased for ASDR, placing a disproportionately heavier burden on low-SDI countries. From 2022 to 2050, the ASIR of CLD is projected to increase (AAPC: 0.20%; 95% CI: 0.19%–0.20%), but the ASDR is projected to decline (AAPC: −1.91%; 95% CI: −1.96% [−1.85%]). Conclusions: This study's findings highlight targeted interventions for CLD disparities, focusing on MASLD management, the younger population (15–49 years), and socio-demographic inequalities.
AB - Background and Aims: Globally, the aetiology and epidemiology of chronic liver disease (CLD) are undergoing significant changes. We aimed to investigate the updated global burden of CLD, evaluate the cross-country inequalities, and provide 2050 predictions. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data resources, we analysed and forecasted CLD prevalence, incidence, and related death from 1990–2021 to 2050, respectively. We calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) by joinpoint regression model and quantified inequalities according to World Health Organisation-recommended health equity standards. Results: In 2021, the number of prevalent, incident CLD and related deaths globally were 1.7 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.6–1.8), 58.4 million (95% UI: 54.2–62.8) and 1.4 million (95% UI: 1.3–1.5), respectively. During 1990–2021, the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) increased, especially in those aged 15–49 (AAPC: 0.49%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45%–0.53%), in Europe (AAPC: 0.41%; 95% CI: 0.41%–0.42%) and the Americas (AAPC: 0.41%; 95% CI: 0.39%–0.42%), whereas the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) decreased globally (AAPC: −1.26%; 95% CI: −1.35% [−1.17%]) and across subgroups. During 1990–2021, the ASIR of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) increased the most in those aged 15–49 (AAPC: 0.72%; 95% CI: 0.67%–0.77%) and in the Western Pacific region (AAPC: 0.73%; 95% CI: 0.59%–0.86%). Socio-demographic index (SDI)-related inequalities decreased for the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) and ASIR of CLD but increased for ASDR, placing a disproportionately heavier burden on low-SDI countries. From 2022 to 2050, the ASIR of CLD is projected to increase (AAPC: 0.20%; 95% CI: 0.19%–0.20%), but the ASDR is projected to decline (AAPC: −1.91%; 95% CI: −1.96% [−1.85%]). Conclusions: This study's findings highlight targeted interventions for CLD disparities, focusing on MASLD management, the younger population (15–49 years), and socio-demographic inequalities.
KW - chronic liver disease
KW - global burden of disease study 2021
KW - health equality
KW - metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease
KW - predictive analysis
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105006660081
U2 - 10.1111/liv.70155
DO - 10.1111/liv.70155
M3 - 文章
C2 - 40421876
AN - SCOPUS:105006660081
SN - 1478-3223
VL - 45
JO - Liver International
JF - Liver International
IS - 6
M1 - e70155
ER -