Atlantic Ocean thermal forcing of Central American rainfall over 140,000 years

Tropical hydroclimate in monsoonal regions has been largely understood according to the orbital monsoon hypothesis, in which rainfall exhibits strong covariation with local summer insolation on precessional (~21,000 years) time scales, as exemplified in the Asian and South American monsoon stalagmite records. However, paleo-rainfall variations in some tropical regions are poorly explained by the orbital hypothesis, suggesting alternative forcing mechanisms of regional monsoon changes. Here, we show a 140,000-year record of Central American rainfall from oxygen-isotope (δ¹⁸O) time series of precisely dated stalagmites which reveals two dominant thermally-controlled monsoon regimes in which the Atlantic Ocean thermal state linked to the meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the primary driver, and local orbital summer insolation control is limited. Our reconstruction, supported by isotope-enabled climate model simulations, pinpoints the potential impacts of future AMOC weakening on the Central American and Caribbean climate.