An Equation Based on Fuzzy Mathematics to Assess the Timing of Haemodialysis Initiation

In order to develop an equation that integrates multiple clinical factors including signs and symptoms associated with uraemia to assess the initiation of dialysis, we conducted a retrospective cohort study including 25 haemodialysis centres in Mainland China. Patients with ESRD (n = 1281) who commenced haemodialysis from 2008 to 2011 were enrolled in the development cohort, whereas 504 patients who began haemodialysis between 2012 and 2013 were enrolled in the validation cohort comprised. An artificial neural network model was used to select variables, and a fuzzy neural network model was then constructed using factors affecting haemodialysis initiation as input variables and 3-year survival as the output variable. A logistic model was set up using the same variables. The equation’s performance was compared with that of the logistic model and conventional eGFR-based assessment. The area under the bootstrap-corrected receiver-operating characteristic curve of the equation was 0.70, and that of two conventional eGFR-based assessments were 0.57 and 0.54. In conclusion, the new equation based on Fuzzy mathematics, covering laboratory and clinical variables, is more suitable for assessing the timing of dialysis initiation in a Chinese ESRD population than eGFR, and may be a helpful tool to quantitatively evaluate the initiation of haemodialysis.