A New Technique to Estimate the Degree of Polymerization of Insulation Paper Using Multiple Aging Parameters of Transformer Oil

Transformer insulation paper is a key indicator for transformer remaining operational life. Paper decomposition is evaluated using the degree of polymerization (DP) which calls for samples of insulation paper from operating transformers. Since collecting such paper samples is extremely difficult, other indicators have been used to indirectly reveal the DP value of insulation paper. This includes dissolved gases in transformer oil such as carbon oxides and hydrocarbon gases, furan compounds, methanol, ethanol, and moisture along with some oil characteristics such as interfacial tension. However, for the same oil sample, these individual parameters lead to different DP values. This is attributed to the lack of accuracy of the established mathematical and artificial intelligence models correlating DP with each of the above mentioned individual parameters. This paper presents a self-learning method to estimate the DP value of transformer insulation paper based on multiple transformer oil aging parameters. The proposed method comprises data processing, fuzzy c-means and linear regression. Results reveal that estimating the DP value based on multiple aging parameters is more accurate than estimating it using one single parameter as per the current practice. The proposed method not only helps to understand the correlation between multiple oil aging parameters and the DP value of paper insulation, but also promotes the establishment of more accurate life assessment models for power transformers based on these oil aging parameters.