A Cointegration Analysis Among Influential Indicators, Energy Consumption and Energy Supply in China

The paper adopted the cointegration theory to quantitatively analyse the volatility relationship among energy consumption, energy supply and their influencing variables including energy price, economic development, industrial structure etc. First, the Augment Dickey-Fuller model was used to examine the stability of times series data. Second, the Lagrange Multiplier model was employed to quantitatively calculate the cointegration relationship between energy consumption and its variables, and the quantitative relationship between energy supply and influencing factors as well. The results indicated that energy supply is significantly affected by energy consumption, population and urbanisation. Energy consumption was mainly affected by industrial structure and economic growth. It was slightly influenced by the effort of energy price fluctuation.