1990~2023 年中国心血管疾病负担分析及 2024~2040 年趋势预测

Objectives: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), this study systematically analyzed the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in China from 1990 to 2023 and projected the burden of CVD from 2024 to 2040. Methods: Based on GBD 2023, descriptive analysis was conducted on CVD data from 1990 to 2023, indicators included incident cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalent cases, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), deaths and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR)，disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). Decomposition analysis was conducted to quantify the contributions of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes (changes in disease burden attributable to shifts in the epidemiological characteristics of the disease itself) to the disease burden. Additionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of CVD burden from 2024 to 2040. Results: Since 1990, the number of incident and prevalent cases of CVD in China increased continuously. The ASIR shifted from increasing to decreasing after 2000. The ASPR rose rapidly and peaked in 2000, then declined gradually and stabilized after 2015. The death cases and DALYs showed an upward trend with fluctuations, whereas the ASMR and ASDR maintained a continuous downward trend. Additionally, all indicators are consistently higher in males than in females. The burden of CVD was mainly concentrated in the population aged over 60 years. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging had positive impacts on the disease burden, whereas epidemiological changes exerted a negative impact. Additionally, ARIMA model projections showed that the burden of CVD in China will continuously rise from 2024 to 2040. Compared with 2023, the number of incident cases and prevalent cases in 2040 will increase by 57.76% and 56.17%, respectively. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2023, the absolute burden of CVD in China continued to increase due to population growth and aging, while the relative burden showed a downward trend driven by improvements in epidemiological characteristics. There were sex and age heterogeneities in the disease burden. The disease burden in males was slightly higher than that in females across most age groups; additionally, the burden was relatively heavy among individuals aged 60 years and above, indicating that middle-aged and elderly populations should be prioritized for prevention and control. It is predicted that by 2040, CVD disease burden in China will continue to rise. Targeted measures are needed to slow down this trend.