1990—2021 年中国煤工尘肺疾病负担分析 及未来趋势预测 ： 基于 2021 年全球疾病负 担研究

[Background] China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world. Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners. Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention & control and associated policies. [Objective] To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend, and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. [Methods] Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database of 2021, numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved. Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden. [Results] In 1990, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP in China were 3 266, 18 872, and 1 561, respectively, and the DALYs of CWP were 44 614.718 person-years. In 2021, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP were 3 446, 23 975, and 1 229, respectively, and the DALYs of CWP were 29 610.754 person-years. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of CWP in China all showed a downward trend, with the EAPCs of −3.121%, −2.532%, −4.018%, and −4.268%, respectively. The disease burden of CWP in China was mainly concentrated in the male population. The annual average percent change analysis indicated that each standardized rate showed a fluctuating downward trend in different periods. The BAPC model showed that from 2022 to 2035, the age-standardized rates of CWP in China would continue to decline steadily. In 2035, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of CWP would be reduced to 0.10 per 100 000, 0.74 per 100 000, 0.03 per 100 000, and 0.74 per 100 000, respectively. [Conclusion] The disease burden contributed by CWP in China generally show a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, and it is expected that the age-standardized rates will continue to decline steadily from 2022 to 2035.