科技创新的减排效应: 中国工业碳排放因素分解研究

The realization of the carbon neutrality goal depends on scientific and technological innovation to effectively play the emission reduction effect. In order to study the driving effect of innovation on emission reduction from the perspective of the industry, an LMDI model was constructed to decompose and analyze the driving factors of China’s industrial CO₂ emissions from 2012 to 2019. The results show that: 1) Among the factors of energy consumption, the growth of energy emission intensity drives the growth of total industrial carbon emissions, and the regional structure adjustment and agglomeration of energy have a significant emission reduction effect; 2) Among the factors of scientific and technological innovation, innovation transformation efficiency and innovation R&D investment; 3) Among the characteristic factors, low labor intensity and high innovation intensity represent the modernization of production methods in the industrial sector, which is facing more and more challenges. High emission reduction pressure; 4) Among the factors of industrial production, the overall growth of the industry drives the growth of the total carbon emission, and the adjustment of the industry structure has a restraining effect on the total carbon emission. Analyzing the time and industry heterogeneity of the driving factors, it is believed that the policy has an impact on the driving effect of the factor, the innovation incentive policy has not played the expected emission reduction effect, the electric power industry has the greatest impact on industrial carbon emissions, and the impact of each factor on the power industry has unique rules. Ensuring and attaching importance to the distribution breadth of innovation, inspiring all entities to innovate comprehensively, grasping the link from transformation to practical application of scientific and technological innovation, and guiding scientific and technological innovation to incline to green technologies are the potential paths to improve the driving effect of technological innovation on China’s carbon emission reduction.