混合不确定环境下双层多目标区域水资源优化配置研究

Influenced by factors such as climate change, supply-demand disequilibrium and environmental pollution, water resources in China is facing a severe shortage crisis. A scientific regional water allocation strategy is an important means to deal with the water shortage crisis, which is crucial for prosperity of society, economy and environment. Since the regional water resources allocation system involves multi-level decision-making subjects with heterogeneous objectives, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the decision-making conflicts among them to realize mutual benefit and win-win progress. At the same time, the system is affected by social, economic, environmental factors, resulting in complex hybrid uncertainty in the decision-making of regional water resources allocation. Therefore, a bi-level multi-objective programming model for regional water resources optimal allocation is constructed. Firstly, after dissecting the hybrid uncertain environment in regional water resources allocation system, the total water availability is considered as a discrete fuzzy random variable, and the water demands of water sectors are considered as continuous random fuzzy variables; then, deliberating the multi-level and multi-subject characteristics of regional water resources allocation, a hierarchical hybrid water allocation mechanism is put forward, which is dominated by administrative water allocation mechanism and supplemented by water market allocation mechanism; furthermore, the regional water resources management department pursuing social benefits and environmental protection is considered as the leader and the water sectors pursuing their own interests are considered as the followers, so as to realize multi-level, multi-subject and multi-objective collaborative optimization. The bi-level interactive method based on satisfactory degree is applied to solve the complex bi-level multi-objective programming model, and a case study on Wuhan in Hubei Province is carried out. The results indicate that, compared with traditional models such as single-level multi-objective programming model, the proposed model not only ensures the reasonable water allocation scheme, but also maintains the fairness among subjects in multiple levels; compared with the simple administrative water allocation mechanism, the proposed hierarchical hybrid water allocation mechanism increases the economic benefits of industrial, agricultural and domestic water sectors by 10.44%, 3.57% and 0.31% respectively, thus improves the water use efficiency and promotes the efficient allocation of regional water resources.