Understanding the trend of total factor carbon productivity in the world: Insights from convergence analysis

Improving carbon emission performance is widely regarded as one of the most cost-effective ways to combat clime change. This paper employs a parametric Malmquist index approach to measure total factor carbon productivity in 88 economies over the period of 1975–2013. Then, we explore the trend of carbon productivity with the log t regression test and identify potential convergent clubs. Furthermore, the Ordered Probit model is employed to examine the factors affecting the club convergence of carbon productivity growth. The main findings are as follows: (1) the carbon productivity on average increased by 63.5% during the sample period, mainly driven by technological progress; (2) the developed countries performed better than the developing countries. Meanwhile, the developed economies were far ahead in terms of technological progress, while the developing ones have performed slightly better in terms of carbon efficiency improvement; (3) although the whole sample did not show convergent trend, five convergence clubs formed with significant differences in carbon productivity growth; (4) the economies with higher GDP per capita and R&D investment tended to converge to the club with a higher carbon productivity, while the economies with higher energy intensity and foreign trade dependence tended to converge to the club with a lower carbon productivity. Finally, we draw some important policy implications.