Uncertainty qualification of aerodynamic performance of a swept wing with ice accretion

The ice accretion on the wing surface of aircraft significantly impacts flight safety. Providing a precise safety assessment by examining flight characteristics and meteorological conditions is challenging. Based on different swept angles, the experimental data from the icing wind tunnel establish the geometric link between the position of the wingspan and the shape of ice accretion at the leading edge. The correlation analysis and Sobol sensitivity are used to study the uncertainty of single variable. Simultaneously, the polynomial chaos method is employed to study the uncertainty of multiple variables. The results indicate significant correlation between the angle of attack and lift and drag coefficients. The influence of height and velocity on sensitivity is negligible, with the aerodynamic characteristics mostly dependent on the geometric attributes of the ice structure. The uncertainty propagation framework established can accurately assess the impact of swept angle on the aerodynamic parameters of the icing wing, and the predicted findings fall within a 95% confidence interval.