Uncertainty analysis of molten corium In-Vessel Retention under External Reactor Vessel Cooling

External Reactor Vessel Cooling (ERVC) is a key measure to realize molten corium In-Vessel Retention (IVR). The uncertainty of severe accident in core leads to the uncertainty of molten pool parameters in lower head, which may threat the reliability of successful implementation of IVR. In this study, an uncertainty analysis is employed to ensure the reliability of ERVC technology to IVR with the final two-layer molten pool configuration of AP1000.600 simulations are performed to determine the effect of five key parameters. As long as parameters are within high probability density range, lower head can remain intact, and safety margin is greater than 15 %. For influence level and correlation of parameters, the order on metal layer is: Decay heat > Fe mass > UO₂ mass > Zr oxidation fraction > Emissivity of metal layer. The results can provide guidance for subsequent research direction and optimal design of mitigation measures.