The Role of Urban Forest Policies in Driving Green Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Urban forest policies have garnered increasing global attention for their critical role in providing key ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, air pollution control, microclimate regulation, and biodiversity enhancement, as well as their potential to drive green innovation and sustainable urban development. This study utilized panel data from 273 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2022, employing a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences (DID) model to systematically evaluate the impact of the National Forest City Policy (NFCP) on urban green innovation. The results indicate that NFCP significantly enhances urban green innovation, with these findings remaining robust across a series of validation tests. Mechanism analysis revealed that the policy fosters green innovation by increasing environmental attention, facilitating talent aggregation, and reducing carbon emissions. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis showed that the policy’s effects are more pronounced in small- and medium-sized cities, non-transportation hub cities, and economically developed regions. Based on these findings, this paper offers recommendations for optimizing policy implementation across different city types to further promote sustainable urban green economic development. This study broadens the research perspective on the relationship between urban policies and green innovation, providing more precise decision-making guidance for policymakers while also highlighting the important role urban forests play in enhancing ecosystem services and driving sustainable urban growth.