The predictive value of higher level blood pressure in children in developing hypertension

To study the possibility of developing into hypertension in the near future in children with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP), a base-line survey of 4623 school children for blood pressure in Hanzhong rural area in Southern Shaanxi province, aged 6~15 years old, was undertaken in 1987 and followed up in 1989, 1992 and 1995. The follow-up rate was 77.7%, 84.8% and 82.1%, respectively. The SBP percentiles (P) in base-line were positively correlated to the last examination (r = 0.33 for boys, 0.28 for girls, P<0.01). In children with SBP>P₇₅, the possibility of having blood pressure ≤140/90 mmHg 8-years later was 3.91 times greater than that in children with SBP<P₅₀ (13.81% vs 3.53%). Children, in their initial body mass index ≤P₉₀, SBP≤P₇₅ and having family history of hypertension, the possibility of having hypertension 8 years later was much greater than the opposite, 27.6% vs 4.2%. We believe that children with high level blood pressure are predisposed to develop hypertension, especially when associated with obese and family history of hypertension.