THE DYNAMIC INTERPLAY OF CLAN CULTURE AND SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

The United Nations has recently identified a critical global population issue characterized by declining fertility rates in many countries. China, as one of the largest populations globally, is undergoing notable demographic changes, transitioning into a period defined by low rates of birth, mortality and growth. These patterns pose significant developmental challenges and require thoroughly examining their underlying causes. Previous research has primarily emphasized economic and social factors influencing fertility, while the cultural aspects–particularly clan culture—remain insufficiently studied. Clan culture is known to affect fertility intentions and gender preferences, but its role in contemporary society warrants further exploration. To address this research gap, we propose a novel varying-coefficient single-index panel data model incorporating latent group structures to assess the relationship between clan culture and birth population across 28 Chinese provinces. Our analysis reveals that clan culture generally fosters fertility, albeit with diminishing trends. We also identify distinct group structures and significant variations in clan culture’s impact on birth population across provinces. Furthermore, we investigate the complex interactions between socioeconomic factors and clan culture on fertility, including the differing effects on the birth of boys and girls. Through advanced computational methods, this study offers valuable insights into the influence of clan culture on fertility in modern China.