The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ¹⁸O over the past 460 years

Climate change has played a pivotal role in shaping Chinese history, especially during the Ming Dynasty. Previous studies have focused primarily on the Chongzhen megadrought, which is widely considered as the primary climatic perturbation behind the demise of the Ming Dynasty. However, relatively little is known about other severe drought events and their potential impact on the dynasty collapse. Additionally, the characteristics of an exceptional climatic anomaly termed the “Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period” are unclear. In this study, we reconstructed the historical variations of Palmer Drought Severity Index for July–September based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸O) from 1556 CE to 2015 CE in southwest Chinese Loess Plateau. Our study reveals a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 CE and 1661 CE, consistent with the Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period, and unravels its structural characteristics in detail. Our reconstruction also captures a distinct humidification trend over northwest China since the early 2000s. Notably, in addition to the well-known Chongzhen megadrought, our study records the severe Wanli megdrought (1585–1590 CE) during the late Ming Dynasty, an event that rarely featured in earlier studies, exhibiting comparable duration and severity to the Chongzhen megadrought. Further analysis indicates that Wanli megadrought may have served as an early trigger for the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. Furthermore, our analysis implicates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a contributing factor in both the Wanli and Chongzhen megadroughts, and thus to the ultimate collapse of the Ming Dynasty by affecting the Asian summer monsoon intensity.