Solar activity and air-sea interactions in the North Atlantic drive multidecadal to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability in arid Central Asia during the Mid-Late Holocene

Understanding multidecadal to centennial-scale climate variability in arid Central Asia remains challenging due to limitations in the age control, resolution, and duration of available proxy records. In this study, we analyzed a continuous, and precisely dated (∼6 ‰ precision) stalagmite δ¹⁸O record with high temporal resolution (∼4 years) that spans the mid- to late Holocene from Talisman cave in the Fergana Valley, Kyrgyzstan, in arid Central Asia (ACA). This record reveals significant climate variability at both multidecadal and centennial timescales. Spectral analysis suggests that these fluctuations may be linked to solar forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Drier conditions appear to coincide with a northward shift of the Westerlies, which in turn may be driven by reduced solar activity and positive phases of the NAO. Notably, multidecadal δ¹⁸O fluctuations, coincided with the NGRIP δ¹⁸O record and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index, slightly weakened during major ice-rafted debris (IRD) events—likely due to freshwater forcing and internal atmospheric variability.