Resilience Modeling and Assessment for Power Distribution Systems Under Typhoon Disasters

In recent years, power distribution systems have shown great vulnerability to low-probability, high-impact typhoon disasters, faced with the challenge of meeting reliability requirements but lacking resilience. In this paper, the resilience of distribution systems under typhoon disasters is modeled and evaluated from the aspects of hazard modeling, fragility modeling and probabilistic risk assessment. The typhoon hazard is modeled by building a simulated typhoon generator; the distribution line fragility is modeled based on the boosting regression tree. On the basis of resilience modeling, a framework for resilience assessment of power distribution systems based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed, where resilience is quantified from the dimensions of robustness and rapidity. The dynamic characteristics of occurrence and development of typhoons, the random failure of distribution lines dependent on typhoon intensity, the process of load transfer during disasters and power restoration after disasters are holistically considered in the framework. The proposed modeling and assessment algorithm is applied to the IEEE 33-bus distribution system to verify its correctness and effectiveness.