Research on Rational Utilization Rate of New Energy and Differentiated Promotion Measures for New Energy Accommodation in Different Stages of New Power System Construction

With the continuous growth of new energy penetration, accommodation pressure and system regulation costs have increased substantially. Scientifically determining the rational utilization rate of new energy and formulating differentiated accommodation promotion measures are crucial for the planning of new power systems. In this paper, the connotation of the rational utilization rate of new energy is first clarified, and an evaluation method based on time-series production simulation of power systems is proposed. Subsequently, the characteristics of new energy accommodation in the service territories of the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) in 2030 are analyzed, and the sensitivity of new energy utilization rate and power generation to installed capacity expansion is examined. Furthermore, a four-stage evolution pattern of the new energy utilization rate with the rising share of new energy generation is revealed, and the accommodation bottlenecks and key constraints at each stage are identified. Accordingly, a method for determining rational utilization rate targets adapted to different development stages of new energy is established, and phased and differentiated strategies for enhancing new energy accommodation are proposed. This study provides scientific decision support for the formulation of tiered new energy utilization rate targets and the optimization of power system planning.