Reducing export-driven CO₂ and PM emissions in China's provinces: A structural decomposition and coordinated effects analysis

Reductions of export-driven CO₂ and air pollutants emissions are crucial to promote green transition of exports and realize sustainable development goals for developing countries and regions. This study aims to explore the coordinated effects (co-effects) on export-driven emissions (EEs) and the hidden driving forces in China's individual provinces. Based on the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method, seven socioeconomic factors of the changes in CO₂ and particulate matter (PM) EEs during 2007–2012 are estimated by province. The co-effects on provincial EEs, categorized as co-benefits, trade-offs and co-detriments, are assessed to reveal regional disparities. The results show that the changes in energy efficiency have led to the greatest co-benefits in all factors, while changes in emission coefficients, industrial structure, and regional distribution of exports have led to limited co-benefits in a few of provinces. The other factors, variations of population and export per capita, have resulted in co-detriments. The co-effects and their factors varied greatly across provinces. Some provinces were more likely to obtain co-benefits because of their first mover advantages or special actions for green development, such as Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Shandong, Tianjin, Yunnan and Guizhou, dispersedly distributed in coastal and inland regions. On the other hand, as trade-offs and co-detriments existed extensively in some provinces, related factors should be monitored and adjusted. Identifying co-effects and corresponding key factors at the regional level provides valuable insights into green transition of China's exports, and raises the importance of policy integration and regional cooperation.