PVCA: cellular automata and spatiotemporal big data driven framework for solar photovoltaic deployment

The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaics is reshaping global power systems, yet spatial deployment remains largely governed by static, resource-oriented assessment paradigms. Such approaches struggle to capture the complex dynamics of PV development and the drivers of multidimensional indicators, providing limited support for strategic planning. This study developed a Cellular Automata–Photovoltaic Simulation Model (PVCA), which leverages large-scale spatiotemporal data to capture the spatial evolution processes and driving factors of photovoltaic systems. The model characterizes the nonlinear marginal and interaction effects associated with photovoltaic expansion and contraction, and further supports interactive planning and multi-objective scenario simulations. The case study conducted in China, the world's largest photovoltaic market, indicates that an increase in sunshine duration does not necessarily lead to a higher probability of photovoltaic industry expansion: its positive marginal effect remains stable only within the range of 1400–2900 h and weakens or even reverses beyond this threshold. Once this threshold is exceeded, distance to the urban center, system absorption capacity, and land–climatic constraints emerge as the dominant determinants of long-term photovoltaic stability, substantially alleviating structural concerns regarding deployment in countries with moderate resource endowments. Building on these relationships, PVCA reconstructs dynamic suitability maps for photovoltaics, which collectively represent expansion potential and contraction risks, and subsequently simulates the future spatial patterns. The framework further demonstrates that regions with moderate resource conditions but higher system compatibility have long been systematically underestimated. By challenging the resource-oriented deployment paradigm at both the empirical and methodological levels, this study proposes a framework to support more efficient, resilient, and equitable photovoltaic development.