One Drought and One Volcanic Eruption Influenced the History of China: The Late Ming Dynasty Mega-drought

The late Ming Dynasty Megadrought (LMDMD) (1637–1643) occurred at the end of Ming Dynasty and is the severest drought event in China in the last millennium. This unprecedented drought contributed significantly to the collapse of the Ming Dynasty in 1644, casting profound impacts on Chinese history. Here, the physical mechanism for the LMDMD is studied. Based on paleoclimate reconstructions, we hypothesize that this drought was initially triggered by a natural drought event starting in 1637 and was then intensified and extended by the tropical volcanic eruption at Mount Parker in 1641. This hypothesis is supported by the case study of the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Experiment archive as well as sensitivity experiments with volcanic forcing superimposed on natural drought events. The volcano-intensified drought was associated with a decreased land-ocean thermal contrast, a negative soil moisture response, and a weakening and eastward retreating West Pacific Subtropical High.