Oil price volatility and change point analysis

  • Jian Chai
  • , Ju'e Guo
  • , Shou Yang Wang
  • , Hong Quan Li

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This article established the SV-MTVP (time-varying parameters of SV-M model) model to describe the crude oil price volatility. Based on Bayesian principle, this paper used of the MCMC methods to estimate the parameter of the SV-MTVP model. And then established the MS model and analyzed the change-point of crude oil price volatility which based on the estimated results of the time-varying parameters. The results showed that the SV-MTVP model can portray the volatility characteristics of crude oil spot market better compared with the common SV model, and give a good assessment of the common used models; At the same time, the timevarying parameters can be combined with MS model to analyze the incidents and their impact on the crude oil price volatility.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2009
Pages475-479
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2009
Event2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2009 - Sanya, Hainan, China
Duration: 24 Apr 200926 Apr 2009

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2009
Volume2

Conference

Conference2009 International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization, CSO 2009
Country/TerritoryChina
CitySanya, Hainan
Period24/04/0926/04/09

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