No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Sylvia G. Dee; Kim M. Cobb; Julien Emile-Geay; Toby R. Ault; R. Lawrence Edwards; Hai Cheng; Christopher D. Charles

doi:10.1126/science.aax2000

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Sylvia G. Dee
, Kim M. Cobb
, Julien Emile-Geay
, Toby R. Ault
, R. Lawrence Edwards
, Hai Cheng
, Christopher D. Charles

School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering

Rice University
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of Southern California
Cornell University
University of Minnesota Twin Cities
University of California at San Diego

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

102 Scopus citations

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1477-1481
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	367
Issue number	6485
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax2000
State	Published - 27 Mar 2020

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Cite this

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title = "No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium",

abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO{\textquoteright}s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Ni{\~n}o–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.",

author = "Dee, \{Sylvia G.\} and Cobb, \{Kim M.\} and Julien Emile-Geay and Ault, \{Toby R.\} and \{Lawrence Edwards\}, R. and Hai Cheng and Charles, \{Christopher D.\}",

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doi = "10.1126/science.aax2000",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

AU - Dee, Sylvia G.

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Emile-Geay, Julien

AU - Ault, Toby R.

AU - Lawrence Edwards, R.

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Charles, Christopher D.

PY - 2020/3/27

Y1 - 2020/3/27

N2 - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

AB - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85082462914

U2 - 10.1126/science.aax2000

DO - 10.1126/science.aax2000

M3 - 文章

C2 - 32217726

AN - SCOPUS:85082462914

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 367

SP - 1477

EP - 1481

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6485

ER -

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Abstract

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