NIPT-PG: empowering non-invasive prenatal testing to learn from population genomics through an incremental pan-genomic approach

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) is a quite popular approach for detecting fetal genomic aneuploidies. However, due to the limitations on sequencing read length and coverage, NIPT suffers a bottleneck on further improving performance and conducting earlier detection. The errors mainly come from reference biases and population polymorphism. To break this bottleneck, we proposed NIPT-PG, which enables the NIPT algorithm to learn from population data. A pan-genome model is introduced to incorporate variant and polymorphic loci information from tested population. Subsequently, we proposed a sequence-to-graph alignment method, which considers the read mis-match rates during the mapping process, and an indexing method using hash indexing and adjacency lists to accelerate the read alignment process. Finally, by integrating multi-source aligned read and polymorphic sites across the pan-genome, NIPT-PG obtains a more accurate z-score, thereby improving the accuracy of chromosomal aneuploidy detection. We tested NIPT-PG on two simulated datasets and 745 real-world cell-free DNA sequencing data sets from pregnant women. Results demonstrate that NIPT-PG outperforms the standard z-score test. Furthermore, combining experimental and theoretical analyses, we demonstrate the probably approximately correct learnability of NIPT-PG. In summary, NIPT-PG provides a new perspective for fetal chromosomal aneuploidies detection. NIPT-PG may have broad applications in clinical testing, and its detection results can serve as a reference for false positive samples approaching the critical threshold.