Multi-Stage Stochastic Multi-Region Planning Model for China's Electricity Sector Considering Future Uncertainties

A novel multi-stage stochastic multi-region planning model for China's electricity sector is proposed in this paper. The model integrates multi-stage stochastic programming methodology on the basis of multi-region planning model to optimize power generation structure and inter-regional transmission capacity of China in the long term considering uncertainties. And multiple power generation types and inverse peak regulation characteristic of renewable energy are considered in the model, which may be more reasonable for the long-term planning under the background of low carbonization. The planning results considering the uncertainty of load demand and electricity consumption demonstrate that the proposed model is essentially a gradual decision process and guarantees decision makers to choose the optimal planning scheme with the uncertainty revealed sequentially, which may obtain more flexible results and perform better facing future uncertainties. Through scenario analysis, the impact of load demand and electricity consumption uncertainty on the electricity sector development is also revealed. Meanwhile the developing pathway of China's electricity sector can be obtained through the planning results.