Mobile Data Traffic Prediction by Exploiting Time-Evolving User Mobility Patterns

Understanding mobile data traffic and forecasting future traffic trend is beneficial to wireless carriers and service providers who need to perform resource allocation and energy saving management. However, predicting wireless traffic accurately at large-scale and fine-granularity is particularly challenging due to the following two factors: the spatial correlations between the network units (i.e., a cell tower or an access point) introduced by user arbitrary movements, and the time-evolving nature of user movements which frequently changes with time. In this paper, we use a time-evolving graph to formulate the time-evolving nature of user movements, and propose a model Graph-based Temporal Convolutional Network (GTCN) to predict the future traffic of each network unit in a wireless network. GTCN can bring significant benefits to two aspects. (1) GTCN can effectively learn intra- and inter-time spatial correlations between network units in a time-evolving graph through a node aggregation method. (2) GTCN can efficiently model the temporal dynamics of the mobile traffic trend from different network units through a temporal convolutional layer. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of our method. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the improvement of the prediction performance of our GTCN is 3.2 to 10.2 percent for different prediction horizons. GTCN also achieves 8.4× faster on prediction time.