Long term optimal energy allocating for hydropower plant based on parameter adjusting strategy

Based on forecast market clearing price, a long term hydroelectricity energy trading model with profit maximization is proposed, where the tradeoff among the bilateral contract market, spot market and reserve market is conducted simultaneously. AR (1) is used for predicting the market clearing price and value at risk measures for the volatile risk of electricity price. The proposed model is solved by the principle of decomposition and coordination for large scale system to obtain the optimal contract discharge to the overall benefit and optimal allocating strategy in the upper sub-problem, and the optimal discharge in spot and spinning reserve market can be considered in the low sub-problem. By adjusting parameters, the model can provide optimal energy allocation for hydropower plants with different risk preference as facing the same electricity contract, or for a certain plant facing contract with various prices.