Long-Term epidemiological dynamics of Japanese encephalitis infection in Gansu Province, China: A spatial and temporal analysis

The incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) has greatly declined in China. However, JE incidence has significantly increased in Gansu in recent years, on the top of ranks among all provinces in China. To explore the spatial spread and resurgence of JE transmission in Gansu in the past 60 years, we collected yearly data on reported JE in each county (1958-2017) and monthly data on JE cases (1968-2017), respectively. We grouped the dataset into six categories, each consisting of a 10-year period between 1958 and 2017. Spatial cluster analysis was applied to identify the potential space-time clusters of JE incidence, and logistic regression models were used to identify the spatial and temporal dispersion of JE. Japanese encephalitis incidence in Gansu showed an upward trend from 1970 to 1977 and peaked in 1974, then declined, and fluctuated over the study period until an outbreak again in 2017. Japanese encephalitis incidence for the first 30-year period (1958-1987) peaked in September each year and thereafter peaked in July and August during 1988-2017. Spatial cluster analysis showed the geographical range of JE transmission fluctuated over the past 60 years. The high-incidence clusters of JE were primarily concentrated in the southeast of Gansu. We found significant space-time clustering characteristics of JE in Gansu, and the geographical range of notified JE cases has significantly expanded over recent years. The potential rebound of JE transmission occurred in 2016-2017 should be placed on the top priority of government work during the control and prevention of JE in Gansu, China.