Land-Climate-Heating Nexus: Framework for institutional heating characterization and prediction

Heating accounts for roughly half of global final energy consumption and about 38% of energy-related CO₂ emissions. Institutional heating is the predominant form of heat supply, representing over 80% of global provision and exceeding 95% in mid- to high-latitude regions. Understanding its determinants and effects, as well as simulating policy-driven scenarios, is essential for optimizing spatial configuration and advancing decarbonization goals. This study introduces the Land-Climate-Heating Nexus framework and applies it to China, a country with complex climatic conditions and the world's largest heating supply. The key findings are as follows: (1) Institutional heating is influenced by multiple factors and their interactions. Historically, the scale of mixed-use land (46.9%) and urban winter temperature (24.3%) have contributed the most, indicating that urban expansion has offset, or even reversed, the heating benefits of climate warming. (2) When urban winter temperatures exceed –2.7 °C (range: –3.1 °C to –1.4 °C), the marginal contribution of temperature to institutional heating declines sharply. In contrast, response curves for various land uses suggest that land-use planning can play a more proactive role in supporting sustainable institutional heating. These results imply that policies relying on empirical data or single indicators may produce misleading outcomes. (3) Characterization of institutional heating and projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways reveal a supply-side Dual Lock-in interpretation and highlight risk areas. This suggests that current development trajectories may intensify supply-side planning risks and potential distributional concerns, underscoring the need for a more refined, quantitative, and standardized global reassessment of institutional heating.