Inter-provincial responsibility allocation of carbon emission in China to coordinate regional development

To establish the carbon emission trading scheme and achieve the carbon emission reduction goals in China, it is critical to allocate the carbon emission allowance (CEA). Using the entropy method and the modified fixed cost allocation model (MFCAM), we calculated the CEA and the carbon emission intensity (CEI) reduction targets of 30 Chinese provinces in 2030, from four principles (equity-efficiency-feasibility-sustainability) and three dimensions (economy-society-environment). The results are shown as follows. First, China’s total carbon emissions in 2030 calculated in this paper are 17567.9 Mt. Second, on the whole, CEA in China’s southeast half of the Hu line is higher than that in the northwest half. Eastern China has a larger final CEA than western China and central China. Third, Henan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu are the four provinces with the most CEA, while Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Hainan are the four regions with the least carbon allowances. Fourth, the regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Anhui will take on greater responsibility for carbon reduction in the future. On the contrary, the zones of Tianjin, Qinghai, Guangxi, Jilin, Yunnan, and Beijing will be able to sell CEA in the future. Fifth, provinces are divided into three categories from the perspective of CEI reduction. Finally, we put forward relevant policy recommendations based on the conclusions.